Despite political pushes for American manufacturing, the reality on Amazon's marketplace is the opposite. Chinese sellers' global share grew from 50% to 57% in one year, indicating that platform dynamics and global supply chains are more powerful forces than nationalistic economic policies like tariffs.

The popular narrative of deglobalization is incorrect. Geopolitical and economic shocks are not causing a retreat from global trade but rather a massive "rewiring." Countries and companies are adapting by diversifying sources and markets, creating a more resilient, albeit more complex, global economic system.

The trend of moving manufacturing to countries like Mexico or Vietnam to avoid China tariffs is often driven by Chinese companies themselves. They establish clone factories abroad, sometimes with Chinese labor, meaning the economic benefits largely still flow back to China.

Martin Wolf argues that Trump's trade policies are not a blanket attack on global trade. Their uneven application and numerous exceptions encourage trade to reroute through countries like Vietnam and Mexico, mitigating the overall economic damage by design.

The success of tariffs hinges on the insight that China's economic model prioritizes volume and employment over per-unit profitability. This creates a vulnerability where Chinese producers are forced to absorb tariff costs to maintain output, effectively subsidizing the tariff revenue and preventing significant price increases for US consumers.

The negative economic impact of tariffs was weaker than forecast because key transmission channels failed to materialize. A lack of foreign retaliation, a depreciating dollar that boosted exports, and a surprisingly strong stock market prevented the anticipated tightening of financial conditions.

Despite US tariffs, China’s trade surplus reached a record high. This is because China diversified exports to emerging markets, utilized transshipment through other countries, and key allies have not joined the US in a broad trade war.

Redirecting trade from direct routes (e.g., China to US) to less direct ones through friendly nations makes logistics less efficient. For a given volume of trade, this inefficiency requires more infrastructure like shipping containers to support it, creating a significant investment opportunity.

Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen argues that tariffs targeting a single country are ineffective because trade simply reroutes. For example, the U.S. might buy from Peru instead of China, but Peru then uses that income to buy from China. A blanket tariff, applied globally, is more effective at making domestic goods competitive.