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Counterintuitively, US hotel demand has grown a stable 2% annually for 40 years. Eos's investment framework focuses on identifying the unique occupancy "compression" point in each market (e.g., 72%) where pricing power dramatically increases, allowing for more scientific revenue projections.
When Eos expanded from hotels to residential real estate, a key justification was that the new vertical would improve the original. Seeing actionable opportunities in residential provided a better relative value framework, preventing them from chasing the 'best hotel deal' when better investments existed elsewhere.
A service business's ability to consistently raise its prices is the single best indicator of its operational health. High pricing power signifies that the business has solved its core challenge of talent acquisition and training, creating more demand than it can supply.
Counterintuitively, the best multifamily markets aren't high-population-growth cities like Austin. These attract too much new supply, capping rent growth. The optimal strategy is to find markets with barriers to entry and minimal new construction, as this creates a durable runway for rental increases.
During COVID's uncertainty, Eos saw its existing Florida hotels fill to the 50% occupancy cap at higher-than-pre-COVID rates. This live, proprietary data gave them the conviction to acquire a distressed hotel when other investors were paralyzed by fear, illustrating a powerful data advantage.
Asset-light hotel management firms like Hilton grow earnings through RevPAR, unit growth, and buybacks with minimal capital. This structural difference leads to vast outperformance versus asset-heavy REITs. Since separating in 2017, Hilton's free cash flow quadrupled while its REIT counterpart's shrank.
Companies like Hilton are targeting college towns because universities function as anchor tenants for entire cities. They generate a consistent, year-round stream of visitors and economic activity—from move-in days to alumni weekends—creating a highly resilient and predictable market for service businesses to tap into.
Founder Jonathan Wang believes getting the market right accounts for at least 75% of an investment's success. Even a perfect asset-level business plan cannot overcome poor market fundamentals like oversupply, a mistake many hotel investors make by focusing too much on the property itself.
Having captured one in ten nights stayed away from home in the US, Airbnb's growth is slowing. To expand further, it is now forced to compete directly with hotels by integrating hotel listings and adding hotel-like amenities and services, shifting its strategy from disruption to direct competition within the traditional travel industry.
Unlike public REITs that prioritize stable, high occupancy rates (90%+), Prime Group strategically allows occupancy to dip in slower seasons by holding rents steady. This leaves them with available inventory to capture higher-paying tenants during peak seasons, ultimately maximizing top-line revenue rather than just occupancy metrics.
Two historical constants in US hospitality have inverted. First, hotel demand declined in 2023 without a global shock, breaking a 40-year rule. Second, the US is now a net exporter of travel (more Americans going abroad than foreigners coming in), a reversal that pressures domestic demand.