The public markets exhibit extreme short-termism. The immediate post-deal performance of follow-on financings heavily influences investor sentiment for subsequent deals. Poor performance one week empowers insiders to demand steeper discounts the next, creating a volatile feedback loop.

During market downturns, biotech companies lose the ability to raise capital simply when it's convenient. Financing becomes tied to specific events. The key is timing a fundraise immediately before or after the release of significant clinical data that de-risks the company and attracts new investors.

The recent biotech market upswing isn't just a reaction to broader economic shifts. It's fundamentally supported by greater clarity on drug pricing, successful commercial launches by biotech firms, and a strong M&A environment, indicating robust industry health.

While massive, oversubscribed follow-on financings for companies with positive data indicate renewed investor appetite, the true market recovery hinges on the IPO window reopening. Analysts remain deeply divided on whether 2026 will see a significant number of IPOs, suggesting a fragile recovery.

The recent rally in some biotech stocks is likely just the beginning. Key indicators of a full-blown bull market, such as a resurgence in biotech IPOs and a rally in large tool companies (e.g., Thermo Fisher), have not yet occurred, suggesting the cycle is still in its early innings.

When a credible, external VC leads a follow-on round at what seems like a high price, it provides a strong signal of validation. This should prompt existing investors to overcome their anchoring bias and increase their own investment.

The strong biotech market performance in 2025 was not a case of a rising tide lifting all boats. Outperformance was concentrated in companies with strong fundamentals and backing from specialist investors, indicating a healthy, discerning market that rewards quality over speculation.

The financial health and confidence of major pharmaceutical companies have a direct 'trickle down' effect on the entire biotech industry. When large pharma firms are cash-rich and actively pursuing acquisitions, it boosts valuations and funding opportunities for publicly traded biotechs, startups seeking venture capital, and the entire value chain.

The current biotech bull market is fundamentally different from past rallies. It's driven by small and mid-sized companies successfully launching products and generating revenue, shifting the sector from a "dream-based" industry to one focused on execution and profitability.