The Supreme Court's ruling requires refunding over $100 billion in illegally collected tariffs to companies. If processed quickly, this massive cash injection into the economy could act as a pre-midterm stimulus, ironically providing a potential political benefit to the Trump administration despite its legal defeat.

Instead of immediately passing tariff costs to consumers, US corporations are initially absorbing the shock. They are mitigating the impact by reducing labor costs and accepting lower profitability, which explains the lag between tariff implementation and broad consumer inflation.

A contrarian investment opportunity exists in purchasing the legal claims from companies that paid tariffs under the Trump administration. These claims can be bought for 10-15 cents on the dollar, offering a significant return if the Supreme Court deems the tariffs unconstitutional and mandates a full refund from the government.

The success of tariffs hinges on the insight that China's economic model prioritizes volume and employment over per-unit profitability. This creates a vulnerability where Chinese producers are forced to absorb tariff costs to maintain output, effectively subsidizing the tariff revenue and preventing significant price increases for US consumers.

For small parcel shipments, the shipping carrier (e.g., FedEx) is legally the 'importer of record' and receives the tariff refund, not the end consumer who was actually billed for it. This situation exposes carriers to potential class-action lawsuits and significant brand damage.

The inflationary impact of tariffs is appearing slower than economists expected. Companies are hesitating to be the first to raise prices, fearing being publicly called out by politicians and losing customers to competitors who are waiting out the trade policy uncertainty.

A secondary market for tariff refund claims saw prices leap from 25 to 52 cents on the dollar immediately after the Supreme Court ruling. This reflects a rapid repricing of legal risk, with some CEOs now considering selling their claims for 70 cents.

If tariffs are reduced following a court ruling, companies will experience immediate cost relief. However, these savings are passed to consumers slowly, over two to three quarters. This delay creates a temporary tailwind for corporate profit margins before prices on the shelf fall.

Costco is suing the Trump administration over tariffs, not just as a legal strategy, but as a public relations move. It signals to customers that Costco will fight anyone, even the president, to uphold its core value proposition of saving people money.