The push for conflict with Iran wasn't just about nuclear threats but a calculated move. By controlling the Strait of Hormuz, the US could cut off China's primary oil source, forcing them into economic concessions and shoring up the US dollar.

The U.S. wields significant economic leverage over China by disrupting its access to cheap oil from Iran and Venezuela. This control over a critical resource, representing roughly 38% of China's supply, acts as a powerful negotiating chip that forces China to engage.

The conflict benefits China by allowing it to secure its own energy supply through a direct deal with Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange, China can help Iran rebuild its military and infrastructure, creating a more deeply integrated 'axis' that realigns regional power against U.S. interests.

The current Iran crisis could mirror the 1957 Suez Crisis, which marked the transfer of global power from the British Empire to the U.S. If China successfully leverages the situation to its diplomatic and economic advantage, it could signal a similar shift in global power away from the United States.

The predicted US military action in Iran serves a dual purpose. After shutting down oil from the Strait of Hormuz, Trump will leverage China's dependence on that oil. He will offer to reopen the spigot only if China assists in secularizing Iran and removing its uranium, using economic pressure to achieve geopolitical goals.

The US is disrupting China's oil supply from Iran and Venezuela (which accounts for ~20% of its imports) to gain a stronger negotiating position ahead of major talks. This frames the conflict as a geopolitical chess move rather than just a regional issue.

China is intentionally staying out of the military conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran. Its primary goals are to safeguard commercial interests, ensure the flow of energy, and act as an observer, believing there are few gains and many dangers in direct military involvement.

While the Iran conflict creates short-term economic pain for China, it powerfully validates its long-term strategy. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz highlights the vulnerability of oil dependency, making China's massive, state-led investments in electrification, solar, and batteries appear exceptionally prescient and strategic.

China's extreme reliance on oil from Iran and Venezuela (20% of domestic consumption) makes it the party most hurt by the conflict. This gives the US leverage, pressuring Xi Jinping to negotiate a resolution to secure China's energy supply and stabilize its economy.