The first AI lab to IPO gains a significant strategic advantage. A successful IPO could absorb available investor capital and momentum, making a competitor's subsequent offering more difficult. Conversely, a failed IPO could pop the "AI bubble" and close the window for everyone, making timing a high-stakes gamble.

The intense competition between Anthropic and OpenAI to IPO first is a key driver of their dramatic marketing. Announcements like Mythos are framed to build hype, secure a higher valuation, and gain a competitive edge in the public markets, where being the second to list could be a significant disadvantage.

The rush for OpenAI and Anthropic to go public is a strategic weapon, not just a financial necessity. The first AI leader to IPO can define market expectations for growth and valuation, putting immense pressure on the second company, which may have to compete against an already-established narrative.

Reports that OpenAI is delaying its IPO could be a deliberate misdirection. By signaling a later timeline, OpenAI may be creating an opportunity to launch a surprise IPO, aiming to capture market attention and capital before its main rival, Anthropic, has a chance to go public first.

Leaking a pending M&A deal is a direct negotiation tactic, not just a rumor. It forces other potential acquirers with the target on their list into an urgent 'deal mode.' This creates immediate pressure, forcing a rapid decision and potentially generating a competing paper offer within days, which gives the seller significant leverage.

In a powerful signal of internal optimism, Anthropic's employee stock tender offer failed to reach its full allocation. Mirroring a similar trend at OpenAI, employees are holding onto their shares—even those valued at a $380B valuation—reflecting a strong belief that the company's value will skyrocket leading up to an IPO.

Anthropic's massive new valuation isn't just a reflection of its success. It's a strategic financial maneuver by late-stage investors to 'anchor' a high price in the market's perception, aiming to maximize value when the company eventually goes public.

Gurley argues that investment banks intentionally underprice IPOs to create artificial demand and a day-one "pop." This allows their institutional clients to profit by selling into the retail-driven frenzy, leaving average investors buying at inflated prices.

While a high IPO valuation seems like a victory, it can be destructive internally. When the stock inevitably corrects, employees experience the drop as a personal loss due to psychological loss aversion, leading to distraction and depression. CEOs should nudge markets toward sane, sustainable valuations.