AI models will quickly automate the majority of expert work, but they will struggle with the final, most complex 25%. For a long time, human expertise will be essential for this 'last mile,' making it the ultimate bottleneck and source of economic value.

Historically, humans moved from manual to cognitive labor as technology automated physical tasks. Emad Mostaque argues AI now automates cognitive work, creating an "intelligence inversion." There's no obvious higher-value domain left for human labor to escape to, unlike previous technological shifts.

Unlike previous technologies that augmented specific skills, AI could eventually outperform humans in all domains, including creative and emotional tasks. This suggests the historical pattern of technology creating more jobs than it destroys may not hold true.

Despite AI's power, even researchers at frontier labs report a median productivity boost of 2x. They emphasize that their complex AI systems would quickly drop to near-zero productivity if the human were completely removed, highlighting the continued necessity of "human salt" for meaningful work.

The primary danger of AI is not job replacement but the outsourcing of core human skills like deep thinking, creativity, and communication. As with any outsourced capability, this leads to the atrophy of our cognitive functions, mirroring how physical tools made us physically weaker.

As AI agents eliminate the time and skill needed for technical execution, the primary constraint on output is no longer the ability to build, but the quality of ideas. Human value shifts entirely from execution to creative ideation, making it the key driver of progress.

AI's impact on labor will likely follow a deceptive curve: an initial boost in productivity as it augments human workers, followed by a crash as it masters their domains and replaces them entirely. This creates a false sense of security, delaying necessary policy responses.

In the near future, companies will leverage AI to demand exponentially higher productivity. Individuals unable to produce the output currently done by a team of ten will struggle to find or keep jobs. This is the real meaning of 'productivity gains'.

As AI systems become infinitely scalable and more capable, humans will become the weakest link in any cognitive team. The high risk of human error and incorrect conclusions means that, from a purely economic perspective, human cognitive input will eventually detract from, rather than add to, value creation.