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As a radical statecraft move, the US could form a 'North American Petroleum and Hydrocarbons Trading Hub Association' (NAPTHA) with allies. This would create a self-sufficient energy bloc, isolating adversaries and fundamentally fragmenting global energy markets.
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The push for conflict with Iran wasn't just about nuclear threats but a calculated move. By controlling the Strait of Hormuz, the US could cut off China's primary oil source, forcing them into economic concessions and shoring up the US dollar.
The U.S. wields significant economic leverage over China by disrupting its access to cheap oil from Iran and Venezuela. This control over a critical resource, representing roughly 38% of China's supply, acts as a powerful negotiating chip that forces China to engage.
Despite reputational damage, America's status as a net energy producer insulates its economy from the oil price shocks devastating allies and emerging markets. This creates a flight to safety that paradoxically benefits the US dollar and markets, while Russia also profits handsomely.
Trump is leveraging America's energy independence by telling allies to secure their own oil from the Strait of Hormuz. This forces a choice: purchase oil directly from the US or invest their own military resources, fundamentally shifting global energy security dynamics.
The move against Iran is not just a regional conflict but part of a grand strategy to disrupt the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis. By attempting to cut off China's access to cheap oil from Iran and Venezuela, the goal is to weaken China’s economic rise, even at the risk of global instability.
The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is not an isolated shock but a catalyst speeding up the shift towards fragmented supply chains, regional power blocs, and the securitization of essential goods like food and energy.
Contrary to popular belief, the US may not be panicking over the Hormuz closure. The crisis forces global buyers to purchase American oil and gas, generating revenue that can finance America's strategic transition to next-generation energy systems.
For a country dependent on a powerful neighbor like the U.S., the path to a fairer relationship is creating leverage. This is achieved by developing independent infrastructure, like pipelines and LNG terminals, to sell resources to other world markets. With viable alternatives, the country can negotiate from a position of strength, not desperation.
By confronting Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, the US benefits either way. It either gains control of Iran's oil or, if the region descends into chaos, it can become the world's primary oil supplier by leveraging its own and Venezuelan production, making both outcomes economically advantageous.
Despite significant military losses, Iran is successfully leveraging its control over the Strait of Hormuz. This asymmetric strategy chokes global energy markets, creating economic pain that Western nations may be less willing to endure than Iran, potentially snatching a strategic victory from a tactical defeat.
