By keeping AI gains private for so long, companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have fueled public resentment. When they do go public, retail investors may buy shares as a "hate investment" or an emotional hedge against job displacement, creating a volatile market dynamic.

Reports that OpenAI is delaying its IPO could be a deliberate misdirection. By signaling a later timeline, OpenAI may be creating an opportunity to launch a surprise IPO, aiming to capture market attention and capital before its main rival, Anthropic, has a chance to go public first.

The race between OpenAI and Anthropic to go public involves a strategic trade-off. Going first captures market buzz and initial investor excitement. However, a poor stock performance could chill the entire market for subsequent AI IPOs, creating a dilemma: seize the hype or let a rival test the waters first.

The urgency behind the Anthropic IPO, coupled with an astronomical valuation and slowing growth, is a classic sign of a market top. This behavior suggests insiders want to sell to the public at peak hype before competition and commoditization erode their moats.

The urgency for OpenAI and Anthropic to IPO may stem from the unavailability of massive late-stage private capital, particularly from Gulf state sovereign wealth funds. With geopolitical tensions affecting this key funding source, public markets have become the necessary next step.

The rush for OpenAI and Anthropic to go public isn't just about prestige. There's a real risk that the massive scale of these IPOs could stretch public market liquidity. This creates a tangible disadvantage for the company that goes second, as investor appetite and available capital might be partially exhausted by the first offering.

Contrary to speculation, Anthropic's IPO delay was not caused by AI safety debates but was a strategic decision made beforehand. Advisors recommended waiting to include strong third-quarter financials, suggesting a move to maximize valuation rather than a reaction to market or regulatory concerns.

Sam Altman cites safety for delaying OpenAI's IPO, but this is likely an excuse. The real issues are negative momentum, pressure from investors, and the difficulty of crafting an S-1 filing that discloses unprecedented existential risks in a regulatory vacuum, creating a "no man's land" for going public.

Major AI labs like Anthropic are planning IPOs, signaling a hot market for liquidity. However, this rush to go public occurs amidst significant debate on whether their massive capital burn and high valuations represent 'real' sustainable companies, revealing a disconnect between market activity and underlying business fundamentals.