Substack's growth wasn't just a "COVID blip." Its continued success is driven by a fundamental shift in the economy of attention. As attention becomes our scarcest resource, we are more willing to pay to curate it with high-quality, trusted content.
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A16Z invested in Substack believing that providing writers with a monetization tool would unlock a new supply of high-quality content. This new supply would, in turn, create its own demand, rather than competing in the existing market for free content.
Substack's founder argues that online spaces become "heaven or hell" based on their core business model. Ad-based models optimize for attention (often leading to outrage), while Substack's revenue-share model forces its algorithm to optimize for the value creators provide to their audience.
The biggest growth driver is mastering platforms where attention is currently underpriced. Businesses often fail by romanticizing past tactics or obsessing over future trends like the metaverse, completely missing the massive, free opportunity available in the present.
A16Z's Substack investment was a bet on a 'supply-driven market.' By providing a monetization mechanism for writers, the platform brought new, high-quality content into existence that previously couldn't exist, which in turn created new consumer demand that wasn't visible before.
People claimed they would never pay for online content in the abstract. But when founder Chris Best asked if they'd pay for their *single favorite* writer, the answer was yes. This specificity proved the model's viability, showing people pay for trusted relationships, not generic content.
The modern internet economy runs on an "attention market" where viral narratives attract talent and capital, often independent of underlying business fundamentals. This accelerates innovation but risks misallocating resources toward fleeting trends, replacing traditional price signals with attention metrics as the driver for investment.
Personal newsletters are resurging as a sanctuary from the exhaustion of social media. Creators crave a space for deeper context away from performative platforms, while audiences seek intentional, high-value content that respects their attention, leading to a boom in personality-driven newsletters.
The media landscape has fundamentally changed. Value is no longer concentrated in institutional brands like the New York Times. Instead, it has shifted to individual, 'non-fungible' writers who can now build their own brands and businesses on platforms like Substack.
The future of the creator economy favors deep trust over broad reach. As institutional trust fails, audiences will gravitate towards creators who are authentic leaders in a specific vertical. Success will be measured by community loyalty ('true believers'), not just follower count.
In today's market, founders cannot afford to build a product and then seek an audience. The only durable competitive advantage is building a content engine first to capture free impressions and organic reach, then monetizing that pre-existing audience with a product or service.
