A powerful investment pattern is the "Good Co./Bad Co." combination. The market often nets out a profitable division and a losing one, undervaluing the whole. When the losing division is shut down or spun off, earnings can double overnight, forcing a dramatic stock re-rating.
A fertile source for undervalued ideas is identifying powerful consumer franchises hidden within a parent company with a boring or unrelated corporate name. The market often overlooks the strength of the underlying brand (e.g., Titleist golf clubs owned by Acushnet) due to this name dissociation.
Public serial acquirers like Constellation Software exploit a valuation arbitrage. They buy private niche businesses at low multiples (e.g., 5x EBITDA) which are then automatically revalued at the parent company's much higher public market multiple (e.g., 28x EBITDA), creating significant shareholder value on day one.
Monish Pabrai's successful Fiat investment reveals a powerful strategy: find hidden assets within a company. The market valued Fiat Chrysler as a single struggling automaker, but Pabrai saw that its Ferrari subsidiary was a gem being overlooked. By valuing Ferrari separately, he realized the core auto business was trading for almost nothing.
Official financial segments often reflect bureaucracy, not true business economics. By creating a 'Shadow P&L' through deductive analysis, investors can uncover massive hidden costs in non-core initiatives, as ValueAct did with Microsoft's hardware divisions.
A specific arbitrage opportunity exists with serial acquirers. When they announce a deal that will significantly increase future earnings per share, the market often under-reacts. An investor can buy shares at a compressed forward multiple before the full impact of the acquisition is priced in.
Acquiring smaller companies at a 5-6x EBITDA multiple and integrating them to reach a larger scale allows you to sell the combined entity at a 10-12x multiple. This multiple expansion is a powerful, often overlooked financial driver of M&A strategies, creating value almost overnight.
Public markets punish complexity, creating opportunities. Exor's diverse portfolio of cars, tractors, luxury goods, and media is so heavily discounted that the market value of its Ferrari stake alone is greater than the entire company's market capitalization.
Aggregate profitability can mask serious issues. A company's positive bottom line might be propped up by one highly profitable offer while another "bestseller" is actually losing money on every sale. This requires a granular, per-product profitability analysis to uncover.
The historical advantage of simply carving out a business that a corporation undervalued is gone. Increased competition and complexity mean that without a critical eye and deep expertise, carve-outs are now just as likely to fail as they are to succeed, with average returns declining over the last decade.
Instead of keeping its M&A strategy in-house, Composecure, under Dave Cote, spun out its capital allocation arm into a separate public company, Resolute Holdings. This allows the market to apply a high-growth 'asset manager' multiple to the M&A potential, separate from the core operating business.