Despite the absence of a real surplus, oil prices are unlikely to surge. China has built massive strategic reserves and consistently sells from them when Brent crude moves above $70 per barrel. This acts as a ceiling on the market, creating a range-bound environment for prices in the $60s.

Analysts create a false “manufactured surplus” by misinterpreting data. They incorrectly count US Strategic Petroleum Reserve additions as market supply and fail to recognize China's massive inventory buildup as a strategic reserve for war or sanctions, not commercial oversupply.

Media focuses on crude benchmarks like Brent, but the real market stress appears in refined products like diesel and jet fuel. These prices reflect refinery disruptions and consumer demand directly, and can reach unprecedented levels even if crude oil itself has not.

China maintains a strategic petroleum reserve covering over 120 days of imports, exceeding the 90-day international standard. This massive stockpile is not just for economic stability but is a key national security measure, driven by long-standing fears that the U.S. Navy could cut off its seaborne oil supplies during a conflict.

Analyst Doomberg theorizes that the mystery of low oil prices amid Mideast conflict is due to China. Last year, China likely bought enormous amounts of sanctioned oil, lied about its reserve levels, and is now discreetly selling it into the market to keep prices stable and increase its geopolitical leverage.

China has stockpiled approximately three to four months' worth of crude oil. This strategic reserve, combined with its ability to shift from natural gas to coal, gives it significant versatility and reduces its vulnerability to supply disruptions from conflicts in the Straits of Hormuz.

China's strategy of building oil inventories provides a key balancing force in the market. During periods of temporary supply disruption and high prices, China can simply slow its stock building. This reduction in purchasing effectively cuts demand and helps offset the disruption, stabilizing prices more quickly.

Faced with geopolitical uncertainty in key supplier nations, China employs a dual strategy for energy security. It has built a massive oil stockpile providing 120 days of cover for supply disruptions. Concurrently, it's rapidly electrifying its transport sector to reduce its long-term dependence on imported oil.

The market's relatively calm response to a historic supply disruption is misleading. It's currently being buffered by significant oil inventories built up during a period of oversupply in 2024-2025. These buffers are finite and are being rapidly depleted, creating a false sense of stability.