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The stock market's performance isn't primarily from productivity gains. It is mostly a consequence of massive money printing that devalues the dollar and forces capital into assets to avoid inflation. Investors are mainly keeping pace with inflation, not getting richer in real terms.
Holding cash is a losing strategy because governments consistently respond to economic crises by printing money. This devalues savings, effectively forcing individuals to invest in assets like stocks simply to protect their purchasing power against inflation.
High valuation metrics like the CAPE ratio seem alarming but are skewed by post-2008 currency printing. The "Price" in P/E ratios inflates due to debasement, while "Earnings" grow more slowly with GDP. This structural shift makes historical valuation averages an unreliable guide for today's market.
Excessive debt forces governments to print money, which inflates asset prices. This process mechanically enriches the asset-owning class while devaluing currency for wage earners, hollowing out the middle class into either the wealthy or the poor.
Investors feel richer as their brokerage accounts show rising dollar values. However, when assets like the S&P 500 are priced in gold, they are down significantly. This indicates currency debasement, not real value creation, is driving nominal gains.
When governments print money to cover deficits, the value of the dollar decreases. This inflates the price of all assets, from stocks to real estate. Extreme wealth figures are a direct result of measuring valuable assets with a weaker currency, not just a product of individual value creation or greed.
Printing money doesn't create value; it inflates the price of finite assets like stocks and real estate. Those who own these non-inflatable assets see their net worth skyrocket, while those holding cash or earning wages are robbed of purchasing power, creating a widening wealth gap.
While stock markets appear to be reaching all-time highs in dollar terms, this is an illusion created by currency devaluation. When the S&P 500's value is measured in a stable asset like gold, it has actually declined since the pre-COVID era. This reveals that gains are not from value creation but from a weaker dollar.
Inflationary policies needed to manage US debt will likely cause stocks to soar in nominal dollar terms while declining in real value. When measured against gold, the S&P 500 is already down 25% since 2022 despite its dollar-based gains, a trend that is expected to continue.
Official inflation measures are manipulated and don't reflect the true loss of purchasing power. The rise in the stock market is a more accurate indicator of inflation, as it shows where newly printed money flows, enriching asset owners while devaluing cash and salaries.
Investors often fixate on nominal returns relative to the dollar. However, the true measure of wealth is purchasing power. A 10% gain in the stock market is actually a net loss if inflation causes your living costs to rise by 20%, or if other assets like gold appreciate faster.