Caterpillar modernized the classic Three Horizons innovation model by focusing on the nature of the work rather than timeframes. Their C.A.T. (Core, Adjacent, Transformational) framework allocates resources (e.g., 70/20/10) to improving current products, exploring related opportunities, and pursuing breakthrough innovations, making strategic planning more flexible and actionable.
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Allocate resources strategically to ensure both short-term stability and long-term innovation. Dedicate 70% of effort to the core business (1-2 year impact), 20% to riskier medium-term bets (3-5 years), and 10% to high-risk moonshots.
Avoid a fixed allocation of resources between core products and new initiatives. Instead, treat the investment mix as "seasonal." Periodically and purposefully reassess the balance based on the most pressing business needs—whether it's stabilizing the core for large customers or pushing aggressively into new markets for growth.
Avoid overly detailed, multi-year roadmaps. Instead, define broad strategic 'horizons.' The shift from one horizon to the next isn't time-based but is triggered by achieving specific metrics like ARR or customer count. This allows for an agile response to market opportunities while maintaining strategic focus.
To avoid decline, managers of mature 'cash cow' products must operate on two tracks. They should rapidly test solution-based iterations to optimize the existing product, while simultaneously dedicating resources to high-level problem discovery to identify the company's next source of growth.
True business agility requires constantly syncing nested plans—tactical, operational, and strategic. It also involves managing efforts across three time horizons: the 'now, next, and beyond.' This military-inspired framework ensures immediate actions align with long-term vision amidst constant change.
To avoid being too futuristic or too incremental, Cisco's innovation arm manages its ventures across two axes: technology risk and time horizon (from 6 months to 5 years). This portfolio approach ensures a mix of near-term value and long-term strategic bets.
The rapid pace of change in AI renders long-term strategic planning ineffective. With foundational technology shifts occurring quarterly, companies must adopt a fluid approach. Strategy should focus on core principles and institutional memory, while remaining flexible enough to integrate new tech and iterate on tactics constantly.
A product leader should actively manage development by allocating effort into three buckets: future big bets, core foundation (stability/tech debt), and growth/optimization. The resource allocation isn't fixed; it must dynamically shift based on the product's maturity and immediate business goals.
Nubar Afeyan argues that companies should pursue two innovation tracks. Continuous innovation should build from the present forward. Breakthroughs, however, require envisioning a future state without a clear path and working backward to identify the necessary enabling steps.
To combat the complexity of its vertically integrated global business, Red Wing's leadership implements a "Triple-Stitched Plan." This framework distills strategy into three core priorities that are relentlessly communicated across the organization, ensuring focus and preventing strategic drift despite the company's vast scope.
