Unlike standard corporate M&A, an innovation incubator's acquisition criteria are different. Cisco's Outshift ignores a startup's revenue and business metrics, focusing solely on the technology, talent, and cultural fit to accelerate its own strategic objectives.

AI networking is not an evolution of cloud networking but a new paradigm. It's a 'back-end' system designed to connect thousands of GPUs, handling traffic with far greater intensity, durability, and burstiness than the 'front-end' networks serving general-purpose cloud workloads, requiring different metrics and parameters.

To avoid being too futuristic or too incremental, Cisco's innovation arm manages its ventures across two axes: technology risk and time horizon (from 6 months to 5 years). This portfolio approach ensures a mix of near-term value and long-term strategic bets.

Moving beyond isolated AI agents requires a framework mirroring human collaboration. This involves agents establishing common goals (shared intent), building a collective knowledge base (shared knowledge), and creating novel solutions together (shared innovation).

To select new ventures, Cisco's incubator finds a "Goldilocks zone." The idea must be close enough to leverage a strategic advantage from the core business, but far enough away that it doesn't overlap with or duplicate the work of existing business units.

The next frontier in AI is not just developing individual agents, but orchestrating teams of them. Users will move from dialoguing with a single chatbot to managing multiple agents working in parallel on complex, long-running workflows. This becomes a new core skill for knowledge workers.

Block's CTO believes the key to building complex applications with AI isn't a single, powerful model. Instead, he predicts a future of "swarm intelligence"—where hundreds of smaller, cheaper, open-source agents work collaboratively, with their collective capability surpassing any individual large model.

Current AI development focuses on "vertical scaling" (bigger models), akin to early humans getting smarter individually. The real breakthrough, like humanity's invention of language, will come from "horizontal scaling"—enabling AI agents to share knowledge and collaborate.

The primary impact of quantum computing won't just be faster calculations. It will be its ability to generate entirely new insights into complex systems like molecules—knowledge that is currently out of reach. This new data can then be fed into AI models, creating a powerful synergistic loop of discovery.