Contrary to popular belief, government debt is not the primary cause of economic instability; it's the response. Private debt drives booms and busts. When a private debt bubble bursts, government deficit spending is the essential mechanism that injects money into the economy, preventing a full-blown depression.

Manny Roman argues that debt-to-GDP is an incomplete metric for debt sustainability. He suggests comparing national debt to total household savings, which reveals a vast, taxable pool of private wealth in countries like the US and Japan. This lens makes current high debt levels appear more manageable.

Top-line metrics like the debt service ratio suggest consumer finances are stable. However, microdata reveals a "K-shaped" divergence where many households are struggling. This paradox highlights the increasing inadequacy of using macroeconomic averages to assess the true health of the American consumer.

Despite rising sovereign bond yields, corporate credit spreads remain tight as fiscal stimulus buoys corporations. This shifts credit risk from the private sector to governments themselves, creating a dangerous divergence where high-yield debt outperforms sovereign bonds, keeping the equity market propped up for now.

Michael Mauboussin's research reveals a surprising trend. Despite a long period of low interest rates, non-financial corporate debt to total capital is around 15% today, significantly lower than the historical average of 26%. This suggests balance sheets are stronger than commonly perceived.

Despite recent concerns about private credit quality, the most rapid and substantial growth in debt since the GFC has occurred in the government sector. This makes the government bond market, not private credit, the most likely source of a future systemic crisis, especially in a rising rate environment.

Despite the highest benchmark interest rates in years, the U.S. economy avoided a major wave of corporate bankruptcies. This resilience can be attributed to the explosive growth of private credit, which provided an alternative financing channel for companies when traditional bank lending became more restrictive.

While U.S. households and corporations have deleveraged, government debt has exploded, making private credit more attractive. This creates a hidden risk: the deleveraged private sector has immense capacity to borrow once inflation returns, which could trigger a massive, uncontrollable demand-pull inflation shock.

The prolonged period of near-zero interest rates encouraged businesses, especially in private equity, to take on massive leverage. These companies, structured for cheap debt, are now struggling to survive in a normalized rate environment, creating a significant systemic risk.