The Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates that the first move in modern warfare is often a cyberattack to disable critical systems like logistics and communication. This is a low-cost, high-impact method to immobilize an adversary before physical engagement.

The war in Ukraine is best understood as a "hurting stalemate," where neither side can achieve a decisive victory. Instead, each focuses on inflicting maximum pain and cost on the other—militarily, economically, and on civilian populations—hoping to break the adversary's political will to continue fighting.

The war in Ukraine established a grim precedent for the secondary effects of conflict on the global food supply. It is estimated that more people died from hunger in East Africa due to the war's disruption than died on the battlefield itself, highlighting the massive humanitarian stakes of current and future geopolitical crises.

Drone strikes on Amazon data centers during the Iran conflict suggest that critical AI and cloud infrastructure are now viewed as high-value military targets. This parallels how oil fields and refineries were targeted in previous eras of warfare.

The conflict in Sudan has evolved into a widespread drone war, with both sides possessing significant arsenals. This means attacks are no longer confined to front lines; civilian infrastructure like hospitals and markets are targeted nationwide, making no part of the country truly safe for its inhabitants.

Recognizing Russia's high tolerance for military casualties, Ukraine has shifted its strategy to asymmetric economic warfare. By systematically using long-range drones to attack Russian oil refineries and tankers, Ukraine aims to inflict financial pain where the human cost of war has failed to be a deterrent, creating what they call "the real sanctions."

Russia has escalated its economic warfare by targeting ships directly, not just port infrastructure. This has shattered shippers' risk appetite, effectively making Ukrainian ports "commercially dead." The strategy threatens a massive agricultural crisis, with 50 million tons of harvest at risk of being stranded.

Against an enemy employing asymmetric warfare, achieving total victory may be impossible without resorting to indiscriminate killing and infrastructure destruction. Since modern Western societies lack the moral appetite for such tactics, decisive military wins become elusive.

Recent conflicts and political rhetoric have eroded the laws of war, normalizing threats against civilian infrastructure like bridges and power plants. Western populations, accustomed to distant conflicts, are psychologically unprepared for the possibility that their own critical national infrastructure could become legitimate targets in a future high-intensity war.