A vast majority of small-to-medium enterprises are priced at valuations their market will not support. This market failure means 8 or 9 out of 10 of these businesses never get sold, trapping their owners—often Baby Boomers—into working long past their desired retirement age.
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Valuations don't jump dramatically; they 'sneak up on you.' An investor might balk at a $45M cap when they expected $40M. But the fear of missing a potential unicorn is stronger than the desire for a slightly better price, causing a gradual, batch-over-batch inflation of valuation norms.
Standout-CV's founder notes that his significant, ongoing involvement in the business makes potential acquirers reluctant to pay a simple multiple of MRR. Buyers discount the valuation because they must factor in the cost of hiring a replacement to handle the founder's tasks, a key consideration for solo founders planning an exit.
Private market valuations are benchmarked against public multiples. Currently, public SaaS firms with 30% growth trade at 15-20x revenue, twice the historical average. If this 'bedrock price' reverts to its 7-8x mean, it will trigger a cascade of valuation drops across the private markets.
Venture capitalists may value a solid $15M revenue company at zero. Their model is not built on backing good businesses, but on funding 'upside options'—companies with the potential for explosive, outlier growth, even if they are currently unprofitable.
For years, founders of profitable but slow-growing SaaS companies could rely on a private equity acquisition as a viable exit. That safety net is gone. PE firms are now just as wary of AI disruption and growth decay as VCs, leaving many 'pretty good' SaaS companies with no buyers.
A profitable business that requires the founder's constant involvement is just a high-paying job, not a valuable asset. Enterprise value, which makes a business sellable, is only created when systems and employees can generate profit independently of the founder's direct labor.
The anticipated flood of businesses for sale from retiring baby boomers—the "silver tsunami"—has not materialized as predicted. Owners are holding on longer while the pool of buyers has increased, causing demand to outstrip supply and keeping acquisition multiples high.
When selling a business, owners often underestimate the impact of fees and taxes. Across professional services (lawyers, accountants) and taxes, 93% of owners lose between 30% and 50% of the final sticker price, with the exact amount varying significantly by geography (e.g., California vs. the UK).
Even with strong revenue growth, founders should seriously consider M&A offers if their Total Addressable Market (TAM) isn't expanding at a faster rate. A stagnant TAM indicates a future ceiling on value creation, and selling may be the optimal outcome before hitting that wall.
High SaaS revenue multiples make buyouts too expensive for management teams. This contrasts with traditional businesses valued on lower EBITDA multiples, where buyouts are more common. The exception is for stable, low-growth SaaS companies where a deal might be structured with seller financing.
