Official surveys like PMI or household data can be flawed, delayed, or politically influenced. Daily Treasury tax collections provide a real-time, unbiased measure of nominal growth and economic activity, as it reflects actual cash income being earned and is difficult to manipulate.

The outlook for 2026 is significantly more optimistic than 2025, primarily due to fiscal policy. Deficit-financed tax cuts are expected to add nearly half a percentage point to GDP growth. This stimulus, not AI, is seen as the main force lifting the economy from below-potential to at-potential growth.

Instead of relying on lagging, revised government statistics like GDP, analyzing the daily flow of funds from the U.S. Treasury Statement provides a hard, real-time indicator of economic activity. This raw data on tax receipts and spending offers a more accurate, timely picture of economic health.

Regardless of the national deficit, expect more fiscal stimulus as politicians prioritize winning elections. The need to address voter concerns about 'affordability' ahead of midterms will drive spending, creating a 'run it hot' environment favorable to hard assets.

The 'One Big Ugly Bill' has already passed and its main effects will be felt in 2026-2027, creating a 1-2 percentage point positive fiscal impulse to GDP in each year. This pre-programmed stimulus, combined with runaway mandatory spending, suggests US growth could hit 3-4%, far above consensus expectations.

Despite weak underlying economic data, the probability of a recession is not over 50% due to anticipated policy stimulus. This includes Fed rate cuts, major tax cuts, and deregulation, which are expected to provide significant, albeit temporary, economic support.

J.P. Morgan highlights a confluence of factors in 2026 that could create significant inflationary pressure. These include planned tax cuts, major national events like the FIFA World Cup and America's 250th birthday, and potential shifts in immigration policy, creating a powerful fiscal tailwind.

Goldman Sachs projects 2.5% US growth, significantly above the market consensus of under 2%. This optimistic, contrarian view is based on factors the market may be underappreciating: the removal of tariff drags, ongoing fiscal support from tax cuts, and the delayed effects of easier financial conditions.

The current expectation for legislative stalemate could be completely upended by a significant economic downturn. A recession would make fiscal stimulus more politically appealing to both parties, consistent with historical patterns, creating an environment for policy action that otherwise seems unlikely given the political landscape.