The predictable, decades-long, and regulatorily mandated stream of service revenue from an installed engine base behaves like a financial asset. During market distress, this allows the business to be valued based on the net present value of its future cash flows, much like an inflation-protected bond.

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GE employs a razor-and-blades model on an industrial scale, accepting losses on initial engine sales to powerful airframers like Boeing. This secures a multi-decade, high-margin stream of mandated service and parts revenue from a fragmented base of airline customers, where aftermarket sales can be 3-5 times the original engine price.

Traditional valuation models assume growth decays over time. However, when a company at scale, like Databricks, begins to reaccelerate, it defies these models. This rare phenomenon signals an expanding market or competitive advantage, justifying massive valuation premiums that seem disconnected from public comps.

The bottling contract fixed Coke's price at a nickel. While a long-term liability, during the Depression this became a powerful weapon. Coke's massive scale allowed it to remain profitable at that price point, while smaller competitors with higher costs were crushed, unable to compete with a superior, cheaper product.

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Coca-Cola

Acquired·3 months ago

GE serves two distinct customers: powerful airframers for the initial sale and a fragmented base of hundreds of airlines for aftermarket services. This split forces new entrants to solve a '3D puzzle' of satisfying both technically demanding OEMs and a global user base simultaneously, creating an immense and durable barrier to entry.

Unlike the broader aircraft parts market, the engine aftermarket is highly resistant to third-party 'PMA' parts. Even credible players like Pratt & Whitney have failed to copy GE parts. Technical complexity, voided warranties, and leasing company policies create a strong defense that protects lucrative service revenues.

Palantir commands a massive valuation premium because it is both well-run and unique, with no clear alternatives. This lack of competition dramatically reduces churn risk and increases the durability of future cash flows, justifying a higher multiple than other software companies that operate in more crowded markets.

NVIDIA’s business model relies on planned obsolescence. Its AI chips become obsolete every 2-3 years as new versions are released, forcing Big Tech customers into a constant, multi-billion dollar upgrade cycle for what are effectively "perishable" assets.

Achieve stable, linear growth by combining multiple business lines that have opposing cyclical natures. Instead of cutting a volatile but profitable unit, add a counterbalancing one. This "Fourier transform" approach smooths out revenue and creates a resilient, all-weather business.

Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.

The popular narrative of a looming 'wall of maturities' is a fallacy used in investor presentations. Good companies proactively refinance their debt well ahead of time. It's only the poorly managed or fundamentally flawed businesses that are unable to refinance and face a maturity crisis, a fact the market quickly identifies.

An Engine Fleet's Service Revenue Acts Like an Inflation-Protected Bond | RiffOn