When Terns Pharmaceuticals released poor data for its obesity drug, its core investors and analysts framed it as a positive "clearing event." Instead of punishing the failure, they rewarded the company for its decisive focus on its highly promising CML asset. This shows sophisticated investors value resource allocation and strategic clarity over clinging to underperforming programs.
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Progress in drug development often hides inside failures. A therapy that fails in one clinical trial can provide critical scientific learnings. One company leveraged insights from a failed study to redesign a subsequent trial, which was successful and led to the drug's approval.
When facing a crisis, Fibrogen's CEO decided to shut down discovery research programs. The value inflection opportunity was too far in the future, and capital was better spent on assets with the potential to create more near-term value, ensuring the company's survival.
Terns Pharmaceuticals, previously known for its obesity and MASH programs, scored a major win with its chronic myeloid leukemia drug. This success demonstrates that a diversified, seemingly unfocused early-stage pipeline can be a strategic asset, allowing a company to pivot to a surprise blockbuster when other programs fail.
While Terns' CEO cited "following the data" for their promising CML drug, the decision to de-prioritize metabolic disease was equally influenced by the competitive landscape. She noted the extreme difficulty of competing against larger, well-capitalized players in the obesity market, making the pivot a strategic choice based on relative opportunity and defensibility.
A decade ago, Neurocrine made the difficult decision to pause development of a promising CRF2 agonist. This ruthless prioritization freed up essential capital and focus to successfully develop what became INGREZZA, their blockbuster drug, demonstrating a long-term strategy of sacrificing a good opportunity for a great one.
To save money, Rhythm's leadership considered canceling a clinical study because the prevailing scientific logic suggested their drug wouldn't work. The study's unexpected, resounding success became the company's pivotal turning point, highlighting the value of pursuing scientifically contrarian ideas.
An analysis revealed that buying a portfolio of biotech firms with poor data in 2022 would have yielded better returns than buying those with great data. This counterintuitive finding highlights the market's tendency to over-punish initial failures and undervalue the potential of strategic pivots.
While success is celebrated publicly, some of the best leadership happens privately when a CEO makes the tough, candid call to shut down a program or company due to unfavorable data. This "truth-seeking" decision, often against their personal interest, is a hallmark of excellence.
The industry over-celebrates financial winners. Equal praise should be given to leaders who, despite poor financial outcomes, successfully pioneer new scientific ground or persevere to get a drug approved for a high unmet need. Their work provides crucial groundwork for future successes.
The prolonged downturn eliminated weaker competition and forced surviving companies to become financially disciplined. This "cleansing moment" means remaining players face a better competitive landscape and operate with leaner cost structures, setting them up for significant upside as the market recovers.
