Frame AI as a fundamental productivity shift, like the personal computer, that will achieve total market saturation. It's not a speculative bubble but a new, permanent layer of the economy that will be integrated into every business, even a local taco truck.

Prominent AI researchers suggesting a decade-long path to AGI is now perceived negatively by markets. This signals a massive acceleration in investor expectations, where anything short of near-term superhuman AI is seen as a reason to sell, a stark contrast to previous tech cycles.

The massive capital expenditure in AI is largely confined to the "superintelligence quest" camp, which bets on godlike AI transforming the economy. Companies focused on applying current AI to create immediate economic value are not necessarily in a bubble.

The hype around an imminent Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) event is fading among top AI practitioners. The consensus is shifting to a "Goldilocks scenario" where AI provides massive productivity gains as a synergistic tool, with true AGI still at least a decade away.

There's a stark contrast in AGI timeline predictions. Newcomers and enthusiasts often predict AGI within months or a few years. However, the field's most influential figures, like Ilya Sutskever and Andrej Karpathy, are now signaling that true AGI is likely decades away, suggesting the current paradigm has limitations.

AI models will produce a few stunning, one-off results in fields like materials science. These isolated successes will trigger an overstated hype cycle proclaiming 'science is solved,' masking the longer, more understated trend of AI's true, profound, and incremental impact on scientific discovery.

The massive $700B capital injection into AI demands a return. The next few years will shift focus from hype to demonstrable results. Companies that can't show a quick, real, and efficient ROI will face a reckoning, even if they have grand aspirations.

Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, warns that the societal transition to AGI will be immensely disruptive, happening at a scale and speed ten times greater than the Industrial Revolution. This suggests that historical parallels are inadequate for planning and preparation.

The tech community's negative reaction to a 10-year AGI forecast reveals just how accelerated expectations have become. A decade ago, such a prediction would have been seen as wildly optimistic, highlighting a massive psychological shift in the industry's perception of AI progress.