An innovation arm's performance isn't its "batting average." If a team pursues truly ambitious, "exotic" opportunities, a high failure rate is an expected and even positive signal. An overly high success rate suggests the team is only taking safe, incremental bets, defeating its purpose.
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Anthropic's team of idealistic researchers represented a high-variance bet for investors. The same qualities that could have caused failure—a non-traditional, research-first approach—are precisely what enabled breakout innovations like Claude Code, which a conventional product team would never have conceived.
Foster a culture of experimentation by reframing failure. A test where the hypothesis is disproven is just as valuable as a 'win' because it provides crucial user insights. The program's success should be measured by the quantity of quality tests run, not the percentage of successful hypotheses.
For innovation arms inside massive companies like Cisco, early revenue is irrelevant—a $5 million success would be laughed at. The true measure of success is creating strategic options for the parent company to navigate future market shifts, not hitting traditional startup KPIs.
Companies like Instagram that succeed early become risk-averse because they lack experience in navigating failure. In contrast, enduring early struggles builds resilience and a willingness to experiment, which is critical for long-term innovation.
The sports disruptors test 10-15 new promotions at every single game. While most teams repeat a few proven successes, the Bananas embrace constant, small-scale failure as a deliberate strategy. This allows them to out-learn their competition and innovate entertainment experiences for fans at a much faster rate.
