Rick Reeder explains that the immense free cash flow of large companies is a self-fulfilling prophecy. It allows them to fund R&D and CapEx at a scale that smaller competitors cannot match, continuously widening their competitive advantage and ensuring their market dominance.
Amadeus reinvests heavily in R&D, with a spend equivalent to its #3 competitor's total revenue. This creates a widening technology and product gap that smaller players cannot bridge, fortifying its market leadership and making it increasingly difficult for others to keep up.
Many investors focus on the current size of a company's competitive advantage. A better indicator of future success is the direction of that moat—is it growing or shrinking? Focusing on the trajectory helps avoid value traps like Nokia in 2007, which had a wide but deteriorating moat.
While high capex is often seen as a negative, for giants like Alphabet and Microsoft, it functions as a powerful moat in the AI race. The sheer scale of spending—tens of billions annually—is something most companies cannot afford, effectively limiting the field of viable competitors.
Traditional valuation models assume growth decays over time. However, when a company at scale, like Databricks, begins to reaccelerate, it defies these models. This rare phenomenon signals an expanding market or competitive advantage, justifying massive valuation premiums that seem disconnected from public comps.
Strong, cash-rich businesses often become unfocused and bloated, tolerating poor decisions that would bankrupt lesser firms. ValueAct Capital calls this the 'disease of abundance,' which they aim to cure by refocusing management on core strengths.
In the hybrid capital market, the ability to deploy capital at scale is a significant competitive advantage. While many firms can handle smaller $20-40 million deals, very few can quickly underwrite and commit to a $500+ million transaction. This scarcity of scaled players creates a less competitive, inefficient market for those who can operate at that level.
A powerful, overlooked competitive moat exists in the "outsourced R&D" model. These companies, like Core Labs in energy or Christian Hansen in food, become so integral to clients' innovation that they command high margins and valuations that appear expensive when viewed only through the lens of their specific industry.
A few dominant consumer platforms are capturing the majority of retail sales, creating a winner-take-all market. These companies leverage their scale and cash flow to reinvest in technology and advertising, widening their competitive moats much like the largest tech companies.
Contrary to belief, downside protection in a growth portfolio is not about diversification. It's about owning companies whose competitive advantages are actively growing. During downturns, these companies can invest and take market share from financially constrained rivals, making them surprisingly resilient and defensive.
Sustainable scale isn't just about a better product; it's about defensibility. The three key moats are brand (a trusted reputation that makes you the default choice), network (leveraged relationships for partnerships and talent), and data (an information advantage that competitors can't easily replicate).