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A key clarification from Amazon's earnings is that its reported $25 billion run-rate for AI revenue and $25 billion run-rate for chips are not mutually exclusive. There is significant overlap, as AI services on AWS often involve using Amazon's own chips. The total AWS revenue was $42B, not $50B.

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Amazon is investing billions in OpenAI, which OpenAI will then use to purchase Amazon's cloud services and proprietary Trainium chips. This vendor financing model locks in a major customer for AWS while funding the AI leader's massive compute needs, creating a self-reinforcing financial loop.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy states that developing custom silicon like Tranium is crucial for AWS's long-term profitability in the AI era. Without it, the company would be "strategically disadvantaged." This frames vertical integration not as an option but as a requirement to control costs and maintain sustainable margins in cloud AI.

Amazon's strategy emphasizes infrastructure over proprietary models. By focusing on AWS cloud dominance, custom chips like Trainium, and key partnerships (OpenAI, Anthropic), Amazon is positioning itself as the essential, neutral compute provider for the AI industry, regardless of who builds the winning model.

The podcast highlights a stunning comparison from Andy Jassy's letter: three years post-launch, AWS had a $58 million run rate. In a similar timeframe for the AI wave, AWS's AI-related revenue run rate is over $15 billion. This illustrates the unprecedented velocity and scale of AI adoption compared to the cloud computing revolution.

Overshadowed by NVIDIA, Amazon's proprietary AI chip, Tranium 2, has become a multi-billion dollar business. Its staggering 150% quarter-over-quarter growth signals a major shift as Big Tech develops its own silicon to reduce dependency.

Amazon is considering a significant pivot from its cloud-centric model by planning to sell its custom AI chips, like Trainium, directly to enterprises for use in their own data centers. This move aims to capture customers in regulated industries and those struggling with high costs and shortages of Nvidia GPUs.

By investing billions in both OpenAI and Anthropic, Amazon creates a scenario where it benefits if either becomes the dominant model. If both falter, it still profits immensely from selling AWS compute to the entire ecosystem. This positions AWS as the ultimate "picks and shovels" play in the AI gold rush.

Amazon's massive investments in Anthropic and OpenAI are not just offensive bets but a necessary strategy to secure their compute volumes. AWS was losing market share to faster-growing Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, forcing Amazon to "buy" the business of major AI players to stay competitive.

Revenue figures for AI companies can be misleading. The same dollar is often counted multiple times as it moves from the end customer through a SaaS provider and a cloud platform before reaching the model provider, creating a "margin stacking" effect that obscures the true net revenue.

After being left out of the AI narrative in previous quarters, Amazon's strong earnings were propelled by its cloud and AI business. A key indicator was the 150% quarterly growth of its custom Tranium 2 chip, showing it's effectively competing with other hyperscalers' custom silicon like Google's TPU.

Amazon's $25B AI and $25B Chip Revenue Run-Rates Have Significant Overlap | RiffOn