New York's high municipal spending relies on taxing a robust financial sector. As finance jobs decline and are replaced by lower-paid roles in sectors like healthcare, the city's tax base is eroding. This is compounded by a nearly 10% drop in real wages since the pandemic, threatening the city's governing model.
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As companies replace human workers with AI 'robots,' they eliminate a crucial source of government funding: payroll taxes. This trend threatens the solvency of programs like Social Security, which rely on a large base of human workers to support a growing retiree population.
Recent job growth is overwhelmingly concentrated in healthcare services (83% of new NFP jobs) for an aging population. This, combined with an AI capex bubble, reveals a non-dynamic, 'K-shaped' economy where 'Main Street' stagnates and growth depends on narrow, unsustainable drivers.
Moses pioneered using independent authorities to issue bonds for infrastructure, sequestering revenue streams like tolls away from the city's general fund. This model starved public transit and other services, creating a structural vulnerability that contributed significantly to the 1970s fiscal crisis long after he was gone.
The US economy's perceived strength is fragile because it rests on a dangerously narrow foundation. Job growth is concentrated in healthcare, stock market gains are driven by a handful of AI giants, and business investment is similarly focused. This lack of diversification makes the economy vulnerable and fuels public anxiety.
The AI industry and the US government both require trillions in funding. This creates a paradox: the more successful AI becomes, the more it erodes the white-collar tax base by automating jobs, forcing the Treasury to borrow even more and intensifying the competition for scarce capital.
While New York has successfully become a secondary hub for the tech industry, this growth is not a panacea for its economic woes. The tech sector is smaller than the financial industry it's partially replacing and faces the same constraints, such as the extraordinary cost of housing and childcare, that are driving talent and wealth away.
The job growth diffusion index, measuring the share of industries expanding payrolls, fell to 47.6 in October. A reading below 50 has historically signaled a recession, indicating that current job gains are dangerously concentrated in just a few sectors like healthcare.
Official median wage data only tracks full-time employees, completely removing laid-off, low-wage workers from the calculation. This creates a distorted reality where median wages can appear to rise during economic downturns, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, precisely because the lowest earners have lost their jobs and their data is deleted.
The U.S. economy can no longer be analyzed as a single entity. It has split into two distinct economies: one for the thriving top tier (e.g., AI and tech) and another for the struggling bottom 60%. The entire system now depends on spending from the rich; if they stop, the economy collapses.
The crisis was a tipping point in American political thought. The preceding era was defined by the 'Great Society' belief in robust government services. The bailout's conditions, forcing deep cuts, signaled the dawn of a new 40-year consensus prioritizing austerity and fiscal conservatism over public spending.