The US response to the Soviet Sputnik launch was a massive, confident mobilization of science and industry. In contrast, the current response to China's rise is denial and dismissiveness. This shift from proactive competition to reactive denial signals a loss of national vitality and ambition.
A critical asymmetry exists in the US-China competition: It is far harder for the U.S. to rebuild its complex manufacturing ecosystems and tacit process knowledge than it is for China to improve its scientific research capabilities, where it is already making significant strides.
The 1990s belief that economic liberalization would inevitably make China democratic provided ideological cover for policies that fueled its growth. This hubris, combined with corporate greed, allowed the US to facilitate the rise of its greatest geopolitical rival without achieving the expected political reforms.
The anxiety driving protectionism in the West stems from seeing other nations catch up, not from an absolute decline in living standards. This psychological fear of losing the top spot undermines national confidence and can trigger a dangerous, self-defeating shift toward isolationism.
U.S. leaders repeatedly declare Chinese advancements in areas like high-speed rail or 5G as new "Sputnik moments." However, the lack of subsequent, meaningful action has diluted the term's impact, creating a "boy who cried wolf" effect and preventing a genuine sense of national crisis or urgency.
Attempting to beat China by mimicking its state-controlled industrial policies is a strategic failure. This approach politicizes the economy, breeds inefficiency, and plays to China's strengths. The U.S. wins by leveraging its own core advantage: out-innovating and out-competing through a market-driven system.
The US won World War II largely due to its unparalleled manufacturing capacity. Today, that strategic advantage has been ceded to China. In a potential conflict, the US would face an adversary that mirrors its own historical strength, creating a critical national security vulnerability.
China, led by engineers, treats national problems as megaprojects to be built. The U.S., dominated by lawyers, excels at blocking initiatives through legal challenges. This core difference explains why China can build rapidly while the U.S. struggles with infrastructure and progress.
An obsessive focus on internal political battles creates a critical geopolitical vulnerability. While a nation tears itself apart with divisive rhetoric, strategic adversaries like China benefit from the distraction and internal weakening. This domestic infighting accelerates the erosion of the nation's global influence and power.
The US cannot win by simply matching China's manufacturing volume in areas like drones. Instead, its cultural strength as an "underdog comeback king" suggests a strategy of being clever and outthinking the enemy, rather than playing a "Me Too" game of mass versus mass.
The "Japan panic" was rooted in fears of economic subordination—like having a Japanese boss or seeing landmarks bought by Japanese firms. In contrast, anxiety about China is dominated by concerns over direct military conflict and a technological arms race, a much starker form of geopolitical rivalry.