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Because commercial bank loans are created from nothing, repaying that debt doesn't transfer money—it extinguishes it. This process of "zeroing out" the ledger via double-entry accounting actively removes liquidity from the system. A slowdown in new lending combined with debt repayment can rapidly shrink the money supply.
A core function of money is to be the 'final extinguisher of debt.' However, fiat currency is created as debt, meaning every dollar is both an asset and a liability. This inherent contradiction makes the entire financial system fundamentally fragile.
Only the Fed and commercial banks can create new, spendable money out of thin air. In contrast, credit creation, like in shadow banking, simply reallocates existing money from a saver to a spender. This distinction is crucial for understanding economic stimulus and risk.
All money is created as debt (credit) from private banks, but the interest required to repay that debt is never created. This forces a systemic need for perpetual growth through new debt to cover old interest payments. If the system stops growing, it collapses, creating a structural incentive for war and expansion.
The vast majority of new money (liquidity) enters the economy when local banks create it "out of thin air" by issuing loans. The central bank's role is merely to enable this process. Therefore, tracking local bank lending is a more accurate gauge of economic health than focusing on central bank actions.
When a bank loan is repaid, the money created for that loan ceases to exist; it isn't just transferred. Widespread debt paydown, often seen as financially responsible, reduces the overall money supply. This directly shrinks GDP and can trigger recessions.
Economist Steve Keen's model suggests GDP is a function of money supply and its velocity. Since banks create money through private loans, the rise and fall of private debt directly dictates GDP growth and employment levels, a factor mainstream economics largely ignores.
The vast majority of global trade is funded by US dollars that exist outside the US, known as Eurodollars. This system operates beyond the Fed's direct control and relies entirely on trust. Money is created when banks extend credit and destroyed when they don't, making the global economy inherently fragile.
Modern finance is a refinancing mechanism. Debt needs liquidity to be rolled over, but liquidity creation itself requires high-quality debt as collateral (77% of global lending is collateral-based). This creates a fragile, self-referential system where a breakdown in either side can trigger a crisis.
Contrary to textbook models, banks aren't intermediaries for savers and borrowers. They create new money and debt simultaneously when issuing a loan. This new credit directly adds to aggregate demand, making it a primary driver of economic cycles rather than a neutral facilitator.
Neoclassical economics wrongly models banks as mere intermediaries lending out existing deposits. In reality, banks create new money when issuing loans, directly increasing the money supply and impacting GDP. This fundamental misunderstanding leads to flawed economic predictions and policy advice.