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  1. Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)
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The factory behind your home loan

The factory behind your home loan

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) · Jun 18, 2026

Mortgages are not loans but manufactured products. This episode deconstructs the complex supply chain, from originators to risk buyers.

A Single Mortgage Is a Bundle of Risks Sold Separately to Different Financial Entities

A mortgage is not a monolithic loan but a collection of disaggregated risks, such as non-payment and servicing. The U.S. financial system has created separate markets for each risk, which are then sold to different buyers like government-sponsored entities and specialized servicing companies.

The factory behind your home loan thumbnail

The factory behind your home loan

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)·2 days ago

Government-Sponsored Entities Like Fannie Mae Act as Insurers, Not Lenders

The primary role of GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) is not to lend money but to act as enormous insurance companies. They publish specifications for 'conforming' mortgages and then sell insurance against the risk of non-payment, which standardizes the mortgage product for the entire downstream market.

The factory behind your home loan thumbnail

The factory behind your home loan

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)·2 days ago

Mortgages Are Manufactured Financial Products, Not Bank Services, Built for a Supply Chain

Contrary to popular belief, a mortgage is not a service provided by a bank. It's a standardized product, assembled by specialist 'originators' for a supply chain of financial consumers. Thinking of it like a component in a factory (e.g., an electronic flow meter) better explains the industry's behavior.

The factory behind your home loan thumbnail

The factory behind your home loan

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)·2 days ago

Your Mortgage Payment Address Changes Because Servicing Rights Are a Tradable Financial Asset

The administrative task of collecting mortgage payments is a separate component called a Mortgage Servicing Right (MSR). These MSRs are actively bought and sold, leading servicing to be consolidated among large, specialized firms. This is why the company you send your payment to often changes.

The factory behind your home loan thumbnail

The factory behind your home loan

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)·2 days ago

Rising Interest Rates Increase Mortgage Servicing Value by Locking In Low-Rate Borrowers

Counterintuitively, rising interest rates make mortgage servicing businesses more valuable. When rates rise, homeowners with existing low-rate mortgages are less likely to refinance or move. This provides the mortgage servicer with a longer, more predictable stream of payments, increasing the value of their servicing rights.

The factory behind your home loan thumbnail

The factory behind your home loan

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)·2 days ago

Securitization Moves Mortgage Risk from Banks to Entities Like Pension Funds to Prevent Crises

The primary function of mortgage securitization is to move long-term interest rate risk off bank balance sheets. Entities like pension funds, which have long-term liabilities and are less sensitive to short-term rate hikes, are better suited to hold these assets, creating a more stable financial system.

The factory behind your home loan thumbnail

The factory behind your home loan

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)·2 days ago