For a brief 20-year period, commanders could monitor individual soldiers in real-time. Before and after this era, the sheer scale of battlefield assets makes such centralized command impossible, necessitating a return to distributed autonomy and decision-making.
Unlike landmines that remain a threat for decades, autonomous drones can be programmed with sophisticated rules, updated remotely, or set to self-destruct after a conflict. This programmability offers area denial without the long-term humanitarian cost of unexploded ordnance.
While a single drone empowers an individual, coordinating thousands to overwhelm a sophisticated defense system creates network effects that favor large, well-resourced nation-states. This complexity ultimately benefits state actors more than smaller insurgent groups.
Modern warfare, like cybersecurity, has moved beyond a binary "control/no control" model. Instead of total air superiority, the goal is creating temporary corridors of safe passage for specific assets and missions, a concept of "access and denial" that is dynamic and fluid.
Unlike commercial sales where the user often controls the budget, government procurement separates the end-user, the budget authority, and the person defining the purchase requirement. Startups must build relationships and prove value to all three distinct personas to succeed.
Today's cumbersome defense acquisition system was designed to solve the 1980s problem of fraud, like overpriced screwdrivers. While successful at preventing that "Type 1 error," it created a massive "Type 2 error": an inability to procure technology at a relevant speed.
The core of high-frequency trading isn't about guaranteed profit per transaction. Most trades break even. The strategy's success comes from a statistical edge over millions of trades, where the primary goal is to structure trades where you are highly unlikely to lose money.
HFT operates in a world of non-stationary data where market conditions constantly change, and in a highly adversarial environment with smart competitors. These two dynamics—shifting data and smart adversaries—are directly applicable to national security AI.
The problem with large defense contractors isn't the companies themselves but an acquisition system that awards contracts before a product is built. This shifts all development risk to the government. The solution is to force companies to invest their own risk capital first.
The common advice to constantly grow your network is flawed. You should first focus on developing skills and knowledge to the point where you can provide value to others. Until then, networking is a one-sided transaction where you are simply taking time without giving back.