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Healthcare Predictions for 2026

Healthcare Predictions for 2026

Running Through Walls · Dec 9, 2025

Venrock's 2026 healthcare predictions: AI wars loom despite new billing codes, drug costs rise, and Medicare Advantage faces turmoil.

Competing Payer and Provider AI Systems Will Create Administrative "Bot Wars"

The proliferation of separate AI tools for providers (upcoding, auth requests) and payers (denials, downcoding) will lead to automated conflict. This friction could worsen administrative burdens rather than easing them, creating a high-speed, zero-sum game played by algorithms.

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Healthcare Predictions for 2026

Running Through Walls·2 months ago

Standalone AI Doctors Will Fail Due to Unsustainable DTC Business Models

The primary challenge for direct-to-consumer (DTC) AI doctor services is not technology but economics. High customer acquisition costs and churn make a standalone subscription model untenable. Successful AI doctors will likely be a top-of-funnel feature for a larger, integrated healthcare business.

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Healthcare Predictions for 2026

Running Through Walls·2 months ago

Humana's Medicare Advantage Growth Strategy Bets Against Industry Logic

While competitors like United and Aetna are prioritizing margins in a tough Medicare Advantage market, Humana is aggressively pursuing growth. This is a high-risk gamble, as new members are typically unprofitable in their first year. The strategy relies on a favorable, and uncertain, future change in government reimbursement rates.

Healthcare Predictions for 2026 thumbnail

Healthcare Predictions for 2026

Running Through Walls·2 months ago

Medicare's New AI Billing Code Is Intentionally Low to Force True Automation

The new Medicare 'Access' code for AI in chronic care is priced too low to be profitable if humans are kept in the loop. This clever incentive design forces providers to adopt genuine AI-driven leverage rather than simply relabeling human effort, a first for healthcare technology.

Healthcare Predictions for 2026 thumbnail

Healthcare Predictions for 2026

Running Through Walls·2 months ago