Economist Paul Osterman reveals that 35% of workers are disposable. This includes not just freelancers and contractors, but also "marginal workers"—employees like part-timers or staff attorneys whom firms have no intention of developing, creating a permanently temporary internal class to whom no commitment is made.
Economist Paul Osterman argues that while AI's long-term effect on job numbers is speculative, its immediate impact is clear. It introduces significant staffing uncertainty for firms, creating a greater incentive to rely on flexible, non-committal "disposable" workers rather than permanent employees.
The trend towards a "disposable workforce" has tangible public health consequences. A study cited by Paul Osterman found that hospitals relying on contractors for cleaning experienced higher rates of infection compared to those with full-time employees, likely due to contractors' weak integration into workplace communication networks.
Reporter Noam Scheiber argues universities are complicit in the struggles of recent graduates. They aggressively market costly degrees in fields like video game design, suggesting high-paying jobs await. In reality, these programs graduate far more students than the industry can absorb, leaving many in debt and underemployed.
Anxiety over AI replacing white-collar jobs is misplaced; the trend has been underway for decades. Research cited by Noam Scheiber shows the job market for recent college grads began softening around 2005 due to early automation and software, long before the recent generative AI boom.
Despite failing to secure expected careers, recent college graduates are applying skills gained in university—confidence, agency, and research abilities—to a new domain: labor organizing. Noam Scheiber notes they are successfully unionizing companies like Starbucks and Apple by teaching themselves labor law and contract negotiation.