OpenAI's browser 'Atlas' might only be a 1.1x improvement over Chrome. This marginal gain is insufficient to drive mass adoption, as users require a 5-10x better experience—like ChatGPT was over Google Search—to switch established habits.
Sam Altman's deal-making prowess isn't just skill; it's fueled by leverage from leading OpenAI, the breakout AI company. Partners feel compelled to collaborate, fearing shareholder backlash for missing the 'next Google', which gives Altman a significant advantage.
OpenAI's long-term value lies in the ChatGPT app and ecosystem, not just its model. The platform can thrive even with competitor models like Gemini because user loyalty is to the app. This follows the strategy of 'commoditizing your complements'.
Venture investors aren't concerned when a portfolio company launches products that compete with their other investments. This is viewed as a positive signal of a massive winner—a company so dominant it expands into adjacent categories, which is the ultimate goal.
Pets.com is a classic cautionary tale, but its target market now has a $70B cap. This suggests the core idea was correct, but it failed due to being too early and undercapitalized for the market to mature. The real lesson might be to invest more in visionary ideas.