While OpenAI and Google performed well, Anthropic's unprecedented growth as the "fastest growing company in capitalism's history" provided the crucial proof point that AI revenue is real, preventing a potential 10-15% market-wide AI stock correction.
Even as enterprises optimize AI spending for better ROI, overall spend will continue to grow rapidly. The adoption curve for new use cases and new enterprises is so steep that it overwhelms any efficiency gains from optimization, ensuring continued growth for model providers.
The key differentiator for SaaS companies is being "in the token flow," where AI model usage directly drives consumption of their product (e.g., more database queries). Companies outside this flow, like some front-facing apps, risk competing directly with AI models and face significant headwinds.
To counter local opposition to data centers, Brad Gerstner proposes a "community dividend." This initiative, involving tech leaders and the White House, would provide tangible financial benefits to host communities, creating a socio-political bridge until AI's broader advantages are obvious.
The recent SaaS stock correction wasn't a crash but a normalization of multiples to the market average. Brad Gerstner argues there's more downside risk; companies that fail to get into the "AI token flow" could see their valuations drop well *below* the market multiple.
Brad Gerstner argues that local opposition to data centers is an existential threat. A moratorium would trigger a recession and, more importantly, cede the global AI, economic, and national security race to China, echoing past technological losses like nuclear energy.
Like Amazon before it, Meta's $100B+ annual CapEx creates the "AWS problem" of idle compute. To justify the spending needed to stay in the frontier model race, they must monetize this excess capacity by entering the enterprise market. It's about ROI, not just strategy.
Counterintuitively, NVIDIA's P/E multiple has compressed even as its stock soared 15x. Earnings growth has been so explosive that it has outpaced the stock's appreciation, making NVIDIA trade at its cheapest valuation multiple in a decade.