The popular phrase "running it hot" wrongly assumes the economy's productive capacity (supply) is fixed. The speaker argues that positive supply shocks like AI and deregulation are "increasing the horsepower of the car," allowing demand to grow faster without causing inflationary overheating.
While the AI productivity boom pushes the long-term neutral interest rate higher, this is counteracted by a powerful opposing force: a sharp decline in working-age population growth. This demographic drag, reminiscent of pre-pandemic "Japanization" fears, is a significant factor weighing on future interest rates.
Stablecoins offer a way for vast pools of savings in countries with capital controls to access the US dollar system. This influx of foreign capital seeking dollar assets could replicate the "global savings glut" of the 2000s, putting significant downward pressure on the neutral interest rate.
High measured inflation figures are misleading due to "quirks of measurement." For example, rising stock market values in portfolio management services artificially inflate reported inflation. Correcting for these biases reveals a less problematic inflation picture, justifying a more supportive monetary policy for the labor market.
Monetary policy operates with a 12-18 month lag, whereas the inflationary effects of oil shocks are immediate and front-loaded. By the time interest rate changes impact the economy, the initial inflationary pressure from oil has passed, making a policy response ineffective and potentially harmful.
Beyond well-publicized shocks like AI, the recent trend of deregulation acts as a powerful and persistent positive supply shock. By lowering production costs and increasing competition, deregulation creates a multi-year disinflationary effect, a factor the speaker argues policymakers must consider when setting interest rates.