Index volatility (VIX) is suppressed because systematic funds are shorting it to hedge long positions in high-volatility single stocks. This trade, fueled by retail call buying in popular names, creates an illusion of calm market stability that is fragile and prone to a sharp unwind.
Instead of constant activity, experienced traders understand that cash is a strategic position. They exercise patience, sidestepping low-conviction periods to wait for ideal conditions. The majority of their returns are made in short bursts where they can deploy capital aggressively into high-conviction setups.
Despite Taylor Rule models suggesting rate hikes are needed, the Fed's other actions—like suppressing oil prices and yields—are highly stimulative. This makes hikes less warranted and politically difficult, indicating a policy preference for supporting markets over traditional monetary tightening.
Long-term institutional holdings have reduced the available trading "float" of many stocks. Retail traders are now exploiting this by buying mass call options, forcing dealers to hedge by purchasing the underlying stock, which creates a "gamma squeeze" and artificially inflates prices.
Policies designed to stimulate equities and support the long end of the bond market directly harm lower-income classes. Instead of allowing a market correction and cutting rates to help Main Street, the government is prioritizing asset owners, deliberately fueling a K-shaped recovery.
A powerful parallel exists between the 2010s gold market and today's crypto market. The immense capital demand for productive AI infrastructure is siphoning investment away from non-productive "store of value" assets like crypto, causing significant underperformance and outflows.
The market's structural upward bias is partly explained by the shift from professionally managed, duration-hedged defined benefit pensions to defined contribution plans. This change turned millions of employees into price-agnostic, systematic buyers of ETFs, removing a source of rational market rotation.
Successful thematic investing requires analyzing adoption catalysts beyond earnings. Mark Hart's model uses "concentric circles of adoption" driven by factors like improved access (e.g., an ETF launch), increased awareness, and an asset's "patina" or gravitas, which create new waves of buyers.