Initially viewed as a growth driver, Generative AI is now seen by investors as a major disruption risk. This sentiment shift is driven by the visible, massive investments in AI infrastructure without corresponding revenue growth appearing in established enterprise sectors, causing a focus on potential downside instead of upside.
A recent Harvard study reveals the staggering scale of the AI infrastructure build-out, concluding that if data center investments were removed, current U.S. economic growth would effectively be zero. This highlights that the AI boom is not just a sector-specific trend but a primary driver of macroeconomic activity in the United States.
While AI chips represent the bulk of a data center's cost ($20-25M/MW), the remaining $10 million per megawatt for essentials like powered land, construction, and capital goods is where real bottlenecks lie. This 'picks and shovels' segment faces significant supply shortages and is considered a less speculative investment area with no bubble.
Direct AI disruption is a minimal concern for telecom companies. The more significant threat comes from hyperscalers like AWS and Azure, which already dominate Europe's B2B cloud market with an 85% share. The real risk is these giants leveraging their cloud infrastructure to enter the B2C telecom space via virtualized networks.
Europe's data center capacity is growing at only 10% annually, far behind the U.S. This gap is largely due to power constraints in three of its five largest markets (Frankfurt, Dublin, Amsterdam). For instance, data centers consume an astonishing 25% of Ireland's entire power grid, creating a major, self-imposed bottleneck for expansion.