Despite the stated goal of reshoring, data shows that observed increases in domestic production value are largely nominal. This means prices have risen significantly while the actual quantity of goods produced has seen very little increase, undermining the core economic argument for the tariffs.
In the US steel industry, tariffs successfully replaced imports with domestic production. However, this shift did not increase the total supply of steel available in the economy. Instead, it caused US steel prices to significantly diverge from and exceed global prices, creating higher costs for domestic buyers.
The legal underpinnings of US tariffs are changing, moving from temporary IEPA authorities to more durable Section 301 and 232 investigations. Despite this complex legal transition, economists expect the aggregate effective tariff rate to remain roughly the same, stabilizing around 10% from a macro perspective.