Economic analysis controlling for business cycles reveals a small but measurable increase in unemployment for roles with high AI exposure. This suggests AI's labor market disruption is not just a future possibility but a current, albeit modest, reality.
Unlike the US (AI) and Asia (AI supply chain), Europe has no strong structural growth story to offset geopolitical shocks. The energy crisis isn't creating a new problem but is a painful reminder of its uncompetitive business model and structural high energy costs.
Despite conflict-related concerns about input materials like helium, Asia's profitable tech giants can absorb higher costs. The greater structural risk is a collapse in global demand, particularly from the US, which would severely impact these deeply cyclical industries.
The economic impact of high energy prices is manageable and relatively linear. However, a physical shortage of oil and gas, where supply is simply unavailable, would create a non-linear, catastrophic shock for Asian economies heavily reliant on Middle Eastern imports.