Economic analysis controlling for business cycles reveals a small but measurable increase in unemployment for roles with high AI exposure. This suggests AI's labor market disruption is not just a future possibility but a current, albeit modest, reality.
The economic impact of high energy prices is manageable and relatively linear. However, a physical shortage of oil and gas, where supply is simply unavailable, would create a non-linear, catastrophic shock for Asian economies heavily reliant on Middle Eastern imports.
Unlike the US (AI) and Asia (AI supply chain), Europe has no strong structural growth story to offset geopolitical shocks. The energy crisis isn't creating a new problem but is a painful reminder of its uncompetitive business model and structural high energy costs.
Despite conflict-related concerns about input materials like helium, Asia's profitable tech giants can absorb higher costs. The greater structural risk is a collapse in global demand, particularly from the US, which would severely impact these deeply cyclical industries.