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  1. Thoughts on the Market
  2. Making Sense of Mixed Market Signals
Making Sense of Mixed Market Signals

Making Sense of Mixed Market Signals

Thoughts on the Market · Apr 10, 2026

Markets appear calm despite a historic energy crisis. We explain the disconnect and suggest focusing on US assets, lower yields, and relative value.

Bond Market's Current Stalemate Points Towards Lower Future Yields

Bonds are caught between inflationary pressures (negative) and growth risks (positive). This tension is viewed as unsustainable and likely to resolve with yields falling, as either inflation abates or a prolonged disruption forces a focus on severe growth risks.

Making Sense of Mixed Market Signals thumbnail

Making Sense of Mixed Market Signals

Thoughts on the Market·7 days ago

Stocks Can Ignore Near-Term Crises Due to Their 'Forever' Earnings Horizon

Stocks can remain stable despite major short-term disruptions, like an energy crisis. Their valuation is based on the discounted value of all future earnings, making a single weak quarter mathematically less significant if the long-term outlook remains intact.

Making Sense of Mixed Market Signals thumbnail

Making Sense of Mixed Market Signals

Thoughts on the Market·7 days ago

Large-Cap Tech Stocks Now Trade at Consumer Staples Valuations Despite 3x Growth

Despite higher earnings growth and low energy exposure, large-cap technology stocks have derated significantly. They now trade at valuations comparable to the much slower-growing consumer staples sector, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Making Sense of Mixed Market Signals thumbnail

Making Sense of Mixed Market Signals

Thoughts on the Market·7 days ago