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  2. The Mid-Cycle Shift Equity Investors Shouldn’t Miss
The Mid-Cycle Shift Equity Investors Shouldn’t Miss

The Mid-Cycle Shift Equity Investors Shouldn’t Miss

Thoughts on the Market · Sep 15, 2026

The equity market is in a mid-cycle transition. Don't fear inflation; embrace the rotation to quality companies with strong earnings & cash flow.

A Sideways S&P 500 Can Mask a Major Rotation to Quality Mid-Cycle Stocks

A flat market index doesn't mean inactivity. It often signals a mid-cycle transition where leadership shifts from capital-intensive early-cycle winners to higher-quality companies with strong cash flow, such as software and financial services.

The Mid-Cycle Shift Equity Investors Shouldn’t Miss thumbnail

The Mid-Cycle Shift Equity Investors Shouldn’t Miss

Thoughts on the Market·18 days ago

Equity Markets Price In Fed Tightening Months Before Official Data Releases

While media outlets react to new inflation reports, the equity market has often already adjusted. Valuations fall and leadership rotates well in advance, as the bond market anticipates policy changes and effectively begins the Fed's tightening work.

The Mid-Cycle Shift Equity Investors Shouldn’t Miss thumbnail

The Mid-Cycle Shift Equity Investors Shouldn’t Miss

Thoughts on the Market·18 days ago

Rising Interest Rates Can Reflect Strong Nominal Growth, Not Just Deficit Fears

The common narrative blames rising yields on government debt. However, a more significant driver is often strong nominal GDP growth. This environment is actually positive for equities, as it boosts revenues and earnings, making stocks an effective inflation hedge.

The Mid-Cycle Shift Equity Investors Shouldn’t Miss thumbnail

The Mid-Cycle Shift Equity Investors Shouldn’t Miss

Thoughts on the Market·18 days ago