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  1. Thoughts on the Market
  2. A New Chapter for North American Trade
A New Chapter for North American Trade

A New Chapter for North American Trade

Thoughts on the Market · Jul 10, 2026

The USMCA review has shifted to an annual negotiation, creating prolonged uncertainty and driving divergent trade paths for Canada and Mexico.

Mexico's High-Tech Integration with the US Outpaces Canada's Traditional Exports

Mexico is becoming deeply integrated into the US high-tech supply chain for AI servers and electronics, while Canada's traditional exports like autos and metals face rising US protectionism. This accelerating structural divergence is reshaping North American trade dynamics under the USMCA.

A New Chapter for North American Trade thumbnail

A New Chapter for North American Trade

Thoughts on the Market·4 days ago

USMCA's True Risk Is Prolonged Uncertainty, Not a Full Trade Collapse

The primary danger for businesses under the revised USMCA is not its sudden termination but the chronic uncertainty created by the new annual review process. This state of perpetual negotiation hinders long-term investment decisions regarding tariffs and sector-specific rules.

A New Chapter for North American Trade thumbnail

A New Chapter for North American Trade

Thoughts on the Market·4 days ago