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  1. Thoughts on the Market
  2. A New Test for Private Credit
A New Test for Private Credit

A New Test for Private Credit

Thoughts on the Market · Mar 31, 2026

Private credit fundamentals are strong despite liquidity tests and software concerns. Systemic risk is contained, creating opportunities for investors.

BDC Liquidity Limits Are a Protective Feature, Not a Systemic Bug

Non-traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) intentionally have liquidity limitations. This design prevents a fire sale of illiquid assets during market stress, protecting the vehicle and the broader system from forced selling and cascading losses. It is a deliberate structural protection.

A New Test for Private Credit thumbnail

A New Test for Private Credit

Thoughts on the Market·9 hours ago

AI Disruption in Software Is Not Imminent or Entirely Negative

The narrative that AI will immediately and negatively disrupt all software companies is flawed. Significant infrastructure capex is required before widespread adoption, delaying the impact. Furthermore, many well-positioned incumbent software companies will actually benefit from AI, using it to expand their margins.

A New Test for Private Credit thumbnail

A New Test for Private Credit

Thoughts on the Market·9 hours ago

Retail Investor Inflows Weakened Private Credit Pricing and Terms

The recent surge of retail capital into private credit had a tangible market impact, forcing managers to deploy capital quickly. This resulted in tighter spreads and weaker lending terms. As these flows moderate, this trend is reversing, creating better opportunities for new investments.

A New Test for Private Credit thumbnail

A New Test for Private Credit

Thoughts on the Market·9 hours ago

Hybrid Private Credit Presents an Opportunity in an Underfunded Niche

A significant opportunity exists in opportunistic or hybrid private credit, which provides flexible capital for M&A, growth, or balance sheet repair. This segment is attractive because far less capital has been raised for these strategies compared to direct lending, creating favorable supply-demand dynamics for investors.

A New Test for Private Credit thumbnail

A New Test for Private Credit

Thoughts on the Market·9 hours ago