The primary economic risk from an energy crisis is not just high prices, which dampen activity. A more severe threat is a "volume shock"—physical shortages and supply chain disruptions that can completely stop economic activity, affecting manufacturing inputs beyond just fuel.
The U.S. economy's resilience, which supports global growth, isn't broad-based. It's narrowly driven by two main forces: significant capital spending in AI infrastructure (data centers, power) and robust consumer spending buoyed by the wealthiest households.
Despite energy shocks, global oil prices have been partly contained because China has significantly reduced its imports. By drawing from its large, previously amassed stockpiles, China is inadvertently acting as a stabilizing force, absorbing some of the market pressure.