A resolution to the shutdown isn't a simple extend-or-expire choice for ACA subsidies. Lawmakers are exploring nuanced compromises, such as imposing income caps for eligibility, requiring out-of-pocket minimums, or grandfathering in current subsidy recipients to find a middle path.
A key second-order risk of the government shutdown is the halt of incoming economic data. This data blackout impairs the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed monetary policy decisions, creating significant uncertainty for investors and the broader economy ahead of key meetings.
The expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies threatens 24 million members with "sticker shock" from average premium increases of 25-30%. This looming financial crisis for individuals is a key pressure point in the government shutdown negotiations, especially with open enrollment starting.