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  1. Thoughts on the Market
  2. AI Meets the Physical Economy
AI Meets the Physical Economy

AI Meets the Physical Economy

Thoughts on the Market · Sep 25, 2026

AI hits the real world. Autonomous trucking moves to commercial scale, promising 20% cost cuts, as power demand creates a decade-long seller's market.

Autonomous Trucking's True Value Is Utilization, Not Just Cost-Per-Mile Savings

While a 20% reduction in cost-per-mile is significant, it constitutes only one-third of the total economic benefit from autonomous trucks. The remaining two-thirds of value is unlocked through massively increased asset utilization, a factor often overlooked in analyses.

AI Meets the Physical Economy thumbnail

AI Meets the Physical Economy

Thoughts on the Market·9 days ago

Data Shows 'Last Mile' Problem for Autonomous Trucks Is Overstated

A common belief is that autonomous trucks will require human drivers for the final leg of a journey. However, a Morgan Stanley analysis of 10,000+ commercial facilities found the average site is under two miles from a highway, well within the 7-10 mile off-highway range of autonomous trucks.

AI Meets the Physical Economy thumbnail

AI Meets the Physical Economy

Thoughts on the Market·9 days ago

Power Equipment Suppliers See No Data Center Delays Despite Moratorium Headlines

Contrary to news reports of data center project moratoriums and community pushback, power equipment suppliers are experiencing no disruptions. Management teams report that project timelines, customer bookings, and equipment delivery reservations remain strong and intact, suggesting the AI build-out is proceeding unimpeded.

AI Meets the Physical Economy thumbnail

AI Meets the Physical Economy

Thoughts on the Market·9 days ago

AI Demand Pushes Power Equipment Planning Horizon to Nearly a Decade

The intense power requirements for AI infrastructure have created a seller's market for equipment, forcing customers to plan much further ahead. Utilities and data centers are now contracting for gas turbines and other hardware for delivery as far out as 2031-2032, a timeline described as a new and surprisingly long for the industry.

AI Meets the Physical Economy thumbnail

AI Meets the Physical Economy

Thoughts on the Market·9 days ago