The Fed won't immediately "look through" energy inflation. It must first confirm that tariff-related inflation has passed. Only then will it decide whether to ignore a supply-side energy shock. This multi-layered process raises the bar for easing and pushes rate cuts later into the year.
While the Fed sees the labor market as balanced due to stable unemployment, it is not dynamic. Job growth is minimal (20k-30k monthly average), and turnover has slowed. This fragile equilibrium, rather than strength, could justify future rate cuts if consumer or business spending falters.
A quantitative analysis of the FOMC press conference showed inflation and oil-related terms appeared five times more frequently than labor market terms. This overwhelming focus on price stability makes it difficult for the Fed to convey a dovish message, shaping market perception towards a more hawkish stance.