Comparing AI to past technologies is a common but flawed policymaking approach. The advice is to "endure the thing itself"—grappling with AI's unique complexities directly, rather than through distorting historical prisms, to form sound and effective policy.
Establishing a significant AI lead over autocratic rivals is not just for geopolitical dominance. It is a strategic tool that affords democracies the luxury to prioritize safety, ethics, and trust. This lead prevents a "race to the bottom" where both sides might irresponsibly cut corners on safety.
AI is the first revolutionary technology in a century not originating from government-funded defense projects. This shift means policymakers lack the built-in knowledge and control they had with nuclear or space tech, forcing them to learn from and regulate an industry they did not create.
Former White House advisor Ben Buchanan argues that contrary to the popular phrase "data is the new oil," computing power is the true bottleneck and driver of AI progress. This physical reality—advanced chips primarily made by democracies—creates a powerful geopolitical lever to influence nations like China.
The debate pitting AI safety against AI opportunity presents a false choice. Historical parallels, like the railroad industry, show that safety regulations (e.g., standardized tracks, air brakes) were essential for enabling greater speed, reliability, and economic potential. Trustworthy AI will unlock greater opportunity.
AI policy has largely been bipartisan, especially on national security issues like restricting chip sales to China. However, a new partisan gap is forming, with a potential second Trump administration signaling a shift towards deregulation ("let the private sector cook") and resuming chip sales to China.
To gauge whether democracies are "winning" in the AI era, one can use a three-part framework. It assesses leadership in core invention (e.g., chips), effective adoption across the economy and national security, and the successful integration of AI in ways that reinforce, rather than undermine, democratic values.
The effectiveness of US export controls on advanced AI chips stems from a deep technological gap. According to China's own projections, it won't be able to domestically produce chips as powerful as those the US is restricting until 2028, creating a significant and lasting strategic advantage for democracies.