For the past 18 months, AI excitement has created a rising tide that boosted fortunes for all major tech companies. This is changing. In the next year, their strategic bets, investments, and results will diverge dramatically, revealing clear winners and losers as "the tide goes out for some people."
A specific VC playbook: post a screenshot of text with a punchy, controversial headline. The headline drives viral distribution and outrage, while the nuanced text attracts knowledgeable individuals who then send better ideas and relevant startups, effectively turning social media into an inbound deal-flow engine.
By setting a clear, difficult goal (running 8 miles for an 8-year-old) with a desirable reward (a Garmin watch), parents unlocked extreme motivation. The watch's built-in metrics (steps, meditation points) then created an ongoing, obsessive feedback loop, proving how simple gamification can drive complex behaviors in children.
Unlike the polished or aggressive personas common in politics, SF Mayor Daniel Laurie's social media presence succeeds because of its sincerity. His earnest, deadpan delivery, often in a suit while showcasing new city initiatives like a drone command center, is seen as an authentic and effective communication style.
Even with comparable model quality, user experience details create significant product stickiness for LLMs. Google's Gemini feels much slower than ChatGPT, and ChatGPT's mobile app includes satisfying haptic feedback. This superior, faster-feeling UX is a key differentiator that causes users to churn back from competitors.
A founder's deep, intrinsic passion for their company's mission is critical for long-term success. Even with a sound business model, a lack of genuine care leads to burnout and failure when challenges arise. Leaders cannot sustain success in areas they consider a distraction from their "real" passion, like AGI research versus product monetization.
When a company like OpenAI hires many "fancy" specialists attracted by the promise of owning a domain (e.g., health, ads), it loses agility. These specialists are not fungible. A top-down "Code Red" to pivot everyone to the core product fails because you can't easily re-task people who joined to run their own fiefdom.