Unlike oil, natural gas demand is highly seasonal, peaking for heating in winter. This creates a non-negotiable deadline (around October) to replenish storage. A supply disruption creates immense pressure to rebalance inventories within a fixed timeframe, making the market response potentially more 'painful' and volatile.
Although the US accounts for 30% of global LNG supply, its export infrastructure operates at full capacity. This structural rigidity means that even with soaring international prices creating a strong incentive to sell more, the US is powerless to increase exports and help rebalance the global market during a crisis.
When an energy company states a multi-year timeline to restore damaged LNG capacity, it's not a simple repair job. It signifies catastrophic damage requiring entire liquefaction trains—the core production units—to be completely rebuilt, a far more complex and costly undertaking than fixing existing machinery.
Ongoing uncertainty about a conflict's resolution keeps natural gas prices from spiking high enough to trigger necessary demand destruction. This complacency is dangerous; if the supply disruption drags on, the market may realize too late that it hasn't conserved enough for winter, forcing a much more dramatic and painful price shock later on.